This is our first forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK. The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day. […]
A number of right-wing blogs are hailing the election results in the Netherlands last week as an indication that the PVV of Geert Wilders is in a clear second place across the country. For example, Daniel Greenfield writes in Frontpage Mag, “The Freedom Party has become the largest party in […]
This post has been updated to take account of the full details of the MORI poll. This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is an On the Day Forecast, meaning it is a forecast published on the day of the referendum including polling results published this morning, […]
This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is held on tomorrow. Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP. Our […]
This post has been updated with the Survation and ORB polls released on the afternoon of the 21st of June. This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is […]
This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result when the referendum is held on Thursday. Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP. This […]
This is our updated poll tracker showing the movement in opinion during the campaign up to the murder of Jo Cox. From this weekend we move to a forward in time forecast projecting the result on Thursday based on the latest polling information.
This is our forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast. Party List Vote Seats List Change (2011) Seat Change (2011) SNP 41.8% 69 -2.2% n/c Conservatives 20.0% 24 +7.6% +9 Labour 19.1% 22 -7.2% –15 Greens 8.0% 8 +3.6% +6 Liberal Democrats 6.0% 6 +0.8% +1 […]
This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]
This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]
