EU Referendum – Forecast 20th June 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result when the referendum is held on Thursday.

Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP. This forecast tracker shows movement away from “Leave” since that day.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 32.94%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 48.80%

Our current forecast is that on the 23rd of June, the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

The latest forecast will change as more polling data is released.

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