Forecast UK - Peter


Welsh Senedd – Forecast 6th May 2021

This is our final forecast for the Welsh Senedd Election. This is an on the day forecast. Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats Labour 39.5% (+4.8%) 23 (-4) 30.1% (-1.4%) 26 (-3) Conservatives 31.2% (+10.2%) 11 (+5) 25.8% (+7.0%) 18 (+7) Plaid Cymru 20.7% (+1.2%) 6 (n/c) […]


US Election Nowcast – 28th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 340 (-13) 196 (+13) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.01% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.42% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 3.05% Probability Tie 0.01% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 178 – 211 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 26th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 353 (-12) 183 (+12) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.19% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 1.36% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 166 – 197 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]