10 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- A number of polls over the past 24 hours are indicating a clear movement to the Conservatives from Labour
- We are now seeing evidence of a shoring up of the SNP vote in Scotland, a reversal of our previous observations. This is the main driver of our reduction in the forecast of Labour seats. Our analysis indicates a great detail of volatility in seat gains for SNP once their Scottish percentage vote share moves above the mid 40s.
- We now predict three seats for UKIP – Clacton, South Thanet and Thurrock
Changes indicated from Sunday’s forecast.
|Conservatives||33.99% (+2.14%)||275 (+4)|
|Labour||31.98% (-1.74%)||264 (-21)|
|UKIP||13.87% (-2.26%)||3 (+1)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.95% (+0.67%)||29 (-3)|
|Green||5.53% (+0.10%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||4.09% (+0.53%)||56 (+19)|
|PC||0.40% (-0.06%)||3 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.