11 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- We continue to see clear evidence of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Each party’s support is down / up respectively over the past few days.
- We are beginning to see emerging evidence of a decline in support for the SNP in Scotland
- The drop in support for the Conservatives is now indicating some more seat losses
- We continue to predict only two seats for UKIP – Clacton and South Thanet
Changes indicated from Saturday’s forecast.
|Labour||33.72% (+0.02%)||285 (+3)|
|Conservatives||31.85% (+0.03%)||271 (+2)|
|UKIP||16.13% (+0.30%)||2 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.28% (+0.06%)||32 (+2)|
|Green||5.53% (+0.10%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.56% (+0.05%)||37 (-5)|
|PC||0.46% (-0.57%)||3 (-2)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
|Seat||Votes||Probabilities of Victory|
|Sheffield Hallam||Nick Clegg (LD) : 18,030
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 17,415
Clegg Majority : 615
|Nick Clegg (LD) : 52.2%
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 47.7%
|South Thanet||Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 16,454
Will Scobie (Lab) : 13,857
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 13,438
Farage Majority : 2,597
|Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 57.8%
Will Scobie (Lab) : 23.5%
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 18.7%
Other seat probabilities can be added as requested.