UK 2015 – Forecast – 25th April

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • We continue to see clear evidence of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Each party’s support is down / up respectively by another percentage point over the past two days.
  • We are beginning to see emerging evidence of a decline in support for the SNP in Scotland
  • Crucially, despite the movement in overall support, constituency polling is helping to build a picture of better Conservative support in key marginals. Our seats forecast shows a two seat gain for the Conservatives despite a decline in national support.
  • We show a current surge for Plaid Cymru in Wales. We are not confident that this will continue for the next two weeks, but we reflect it below.

Changes indicated from Thursday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 33.70% (+1.00%) 282 (-2)
Conservatives 31.82% (-1.1%) 269 (+2)
UKIP 15.83% (-0.67%) 2 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.22% (-0.17%) 30 (nc)
Green 5.43% (+0.73%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.51% (-0.13%) 42 (-2)
PC 1.03% (+0.37%) 5 (+2)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

 Seat Votes Probabilities of Victory
Sheffield Hallam Nick Clegg (LD) : 18,002
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 17480
Clegg Majority : 522
Nick Clegg (LD) : 51.7%
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 48.2%
South Thanet Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 16,372
Will Scobie (Lab) : 13,891
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 13,461
Farage Majority : 2,481
Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 56.4%
Will Scobie (Lab) : 24.3%
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 19.3%

Other seat probabilities can be added as requested.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.