This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- We continue to see clear evidence of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Each party’s support is down / up respectively by another percentage point over the past two days.
- We are beginning to see emerging evidence of a decline in support for the SNP in Scotland
- Crucially, despite the movement in overall support, constituency polling is helping to build a picture of better Conservative support in key marginals. Our seats forecast shows a two seat gain for the Conservatives despite a decline in national support.
- We show a current surge for Plaid Cymru in Wales. We are not confident that this will continue for the next two weeks, but we reflect it below.
Changes indicated from Thursday’s forecast.
|Labour||33.70% (+1.00%)||282 (-2)|
|Conservatives||31.82% (-1.1%)||269 (+2)|
|UKIP||15.83% (-0.67%)||2 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.22% (-0.17%)||30 (nc)|
|Green||5.43% (+0.73%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.51% (-0.13%)||42 (-2)|
|PC||1.03% (+0.37%)||5 (+2)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
|Seat||Votes||Probabilities of Victory|
|Sheffield Hallam||Nick Clegg (LD) : 18,002
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 17480
Clegg Majority : 522
|Nick Clegg (LD) : 51.7%
Oliver Coppard (Lab) : 48.2%
|South Thanet||Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 16,372
Will Scobie (Lab) : 13,891
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 13,461
Farage Majority : 2,481
|Nigel Farage (UKIP) : 56.4%
Will Scobie (Lab) : 24.3%
Craig Mackinlay (Con) : 19.3%
Other seat probabilities can be added as requested.