Updated EWMA Analysis – 23rd April


We have updated our EWMA analysis. The details are below.

  • There is clear statistical evidence that UKIP have bounced back from their low of early to mid April
  • Although we need one more day’s data to show it on the chart, the Conservatives have moved back up to a new band oscillating around a polling value of 34%
  • Despite this movement in the Conservative’s polling band, there is little evidence of an impact on the differential between the Conservative and Labour vote shares.
  • The slight recovery in Green vote share from the exposure in the debates appears now to be dissipating.

EWMA Cons 2304

EWMA Lab 2304

EWMA Con Lead 2304

EWMA LD 2304

EWMA UKIP 2304

EWMA Greens 2304

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