UK 2015 – Forecast – 30th April

8 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • The vote surge towards the Conservatives continues. Constituency level polling indicates that this is not yet translating into seats.
  • Evidence continues to come in of a high level of support for the SNP in Scotland

Changes indicated from Wednesday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Conservatives 35.58% (+0.55%) 280 (-1)
Labour 33.31% (-0.51%) 266 (+3)
UKIP 11.77% (-0.79%) 2 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8.94% (+0.62%) 23 (nc)
Green 4.89% (+0.19%) 1 (nc)
SNP 4.34% (-0.15%) 55 (-1)
PC 0.72% (+0.07%) 4 (nc)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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