UK 2015 – Forecast – 1st May

6 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • We see clear movement back towards Labour
  • We see evidence that there is a move away from the SNP in Scotland

Changes indicated from Thursday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 34.69% (+1.39%) 285 (+19)
Conservatives 34.30% (-1.28%) 268 (-12)
UKIP 13.44% (+1.67%) 2 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.49% (-0.45%) 25 (+2)
Green 4.03% (-0.86%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.81% (-0.53%) 47 (-8)
PC 0.80% (+0.08%) 3 (-1)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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