UK 2015 – Forecast – 1st May


6 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.

Forecast

  • We see clear movement back towards Labour
  • We see evidence that there is a move away from the SNP in Scotland

Changes indicated from Thursday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 34.69% (+1.39%) 285 (+19)
Conservatives 34.30% (-1.28%) 268 (-12)
UKIP 13.44% (+1.67%) 2 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.49% (-0.45%) 25 (+2)
Green 4.03% (-0.86%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.81% (-0.53%) 47 (-8)
PC 0.80% (+0.08%) 3 (-1)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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