Forecast #GE2024 – 14th February 2024 4

This is our first forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place in November 2024. An earlier or later election would affect our forecast.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – This is our second forecast for the 2024 General Election. There are a number of new polling firms operating since the 2019 General Election, and we continue to assess their accuracy.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a working majority”

Our forecast shows Labour as the largest party in the Commons, perhaps not with a technical majority but enough to conduct business as a technical majority government.

Please note that since this forecast is for an election in the late autumn, it reflects the polls today and what we think the change in support will be between now and then. It should not be viewed as a definitive prediction of the result later this year.

Compared to our forecast last April, our overall expectation is slightly more favourable for Labour. At present we expect Labour to be the largest party across the whole of the UK, helped by winning back seats in Wales and Scotland from the Conservatives and the SNP respectively. Whilst they may not gain a technical overall majority, they should win enough seats to govern alone without any formal support from any other party (whether coalition or a supply and confidence agreement).

In Scotland the SNP have fallen back considerably from their 2019 position and this trend has continued over the past year. The Conservatives now look to share with Labour in benefiting from this change. Even though the Tories’ vote share north of the border will be less than in 2019, they should pick up a seat or two from the SNP.

In Wales Labour resume their dominant position after Conservative gains in 2019. We are expecting a loss of most, if not all of the 2019 gains here for the Conservatives. There is little sign of the Liberal Democrats winning any seats here, with their former constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (last won in 2010 and then again in a by-election in 2019) being only a 1 in 3 chance of victory (and probably falling short by 2000 votes).

There is minimal polling in Northern Ireland, but it does indicate large increases in Sinn Fein support (echoing voting patterns south of the border). We believe there is a significant possibility that Sinn Fein will be the largest party in a Westminster vote, both in ballots cast and seats won.

We note a large increase in the vote share for Reform. Over the past year they have eaten more into Labour’s support than the Conservatives, but their position in the country is not yet at a point where they will win any seats. However, we are tracking a number of constituencies where we believe another 5% or so in the national polls might put them within reach of having MPs. These seats include Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hartlepool, Doncaster North and Blaenau Gwent.

Finally, our forecast includes an element of expectation of reversion to mean (in that we believe the current Conservative position in the polls represents a low point they will come back from). As the next few months evolve, we will look for evidence of that reversion from mean, and adjust our expectations accordingly if it is not observed in practice.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour39.4 (+7.3%)323 – 327+121 to +125
Conservatives31.4% (-12.3%)243 – 245-122 to -120
SNP3.1% (-0.7%)31 – 32-17 to -16
Liberal Democrats10.5% (-1.3%)25 – 26+14 to +15
Plaid Cymru0.4% (-0.2%)3 – 4-1 to nc
Green4.5% (+1.9%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Labour Working Majority


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.3% (+7.4%)277 – 279+98 to +100
Conservatives33.8% (-13.4%)230 – 233-115 to -112
Liberal Democrats11.4% (-1.0%)21 – 22+14 to +15
Green4.9% (+1.8%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 –

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP36.4% (-8.6%)31 – 32-17 to -16
Labour29.6% (+11.0%)15 – 16+14 to +15
Conservatives20.5% (-4.6%)7 – 8+1 to +2
Liberal Democrats 7.2% (-2.4%)4 – 5nc to +1
Greens2.4% (+1.4%)

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour44.4% (+3.5%)30 – 32+8 to +10
Conservatives24.8% (-11.3%)4 – 6-10 to -8
Plaid Cymru815.2% (-1.7%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 5.8% (-0.2%)0nc
Greens4.0% (+3.0%)  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour45.0% (-3.1%)50 – 51+1 to +2
Conservatives26.6% (-5.4%)17 – 18-4 to -3
16.3% (+1.4%)13.5% (-1.4%)4 – 6+1 to +3
Greens5.9% (+2.8%)

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Sinn Fein35.0% (+12.7%)7 – 8nc to +1
DUP26.8% (-3.8%)6 – 8-2 to nc
Alliance15.5% (-1.3%)0 – 2-1 to +1
SDLP9.4% (-5.5%)1 – 3-1 to +1
UUP10.5% (-1.2%)0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – Too close to call between DUP Plurality and Sinn Fein Plurality

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