Forecast #GE2024 – 19th April 2023 1

This is our first forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place in November 2024. An earlier or later election would affect our forecast.

Forecasts are made on the basis of current constituency boundaries. The Boundary Commission report in the summer of 2023 may be implemented before the next General Election which will likely change many of the seats.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – This is our first forecast for the 2024 General Election. There are a number of new polling firms operating since the 2019 General Election, and we continue to assess their accuracy.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a minority government”

Our forecast shows Labour as the largest party in the Commons, but not with enough seats for an overall majority.

Please note that since this forecast is for an election in 18 months time, it reflects the polls today and what we think the change in support will be between now and then. It should not be viewed as a prediction of the result next year.

In England we see a rise in support for Labour from the last election, but recent polling has indicated a dip in their support, probably connected to controversial advertising. At present we expect Labour to be the largest party across the whole of the UK, helped by winning back seats in Wales and Scotland from the Conservatives and the SNP respectively, but we do not believe at this time that they will have enough seats to provide an overall majority.

In Scotland the SNP have fallen back considerably from their 2019 position, but recent polling indicates a plateauing of the drop in support linked to recent news stories. The main beneficiaries of this decline are Labour.

In Wales Labour resume their dominant position after Conservative gains in 2019. We are expecting a loss of most, if not all of the 2019 gains here for the Conservatives. There is little sign of the Liberal Democrats winning any seats here, with their former constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (last won in 2010 and then again in a by-election in 2019) being only a 1 in 3 chance of victory (and probably falling short by 2000 votes).

There is minimal polling in Northern Ireland, but it does indicate large increases in Sinn Fein support (echoing voting patterns south of the border). We believe there is a significant possibility that Sinn Fein will be the largest party in a Westminster vote, both in ballots cast and seats won.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour40.0 (+7.9%)308 – 317+106 to +115
Conservatives32.6% (-11.1%)251 – 256-114 to -109
SNP3.4% (-0.4%)35 – 39-13 to -9
Liberal Democrats10.6% (-1.2%)22 – 25+11 to +14
Plaid Cymru0.7% (+0.1%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Green4.3% (+1.7%)0 – 1 (1)-1 to 0
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Labour Plurality


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.9% (+8.0%)267 – 273+88 to +94
Conservatives35.2% (-12.0%)238 – 245-107 to -100
Liberal Democrats11.5% (-0.9%)18 – 21+11 to +14
Green4.7% (+1.6%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 –

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP39.5% (-5.5%)35 – 39-13 to -9
Labour29.9% (+11.3%)10 – 15+9 to +14
Conservatives20.1% (-5.0%)5 – 7-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 6.7% (-2.9%)2 – 5-2 to +1
Greens3.1% (+2.1%)

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour45.2% (+4.3%)29 – 32+7 to +10
Conservatives24.5% (-11.6%)4 – 6-10 to -8
Plaid Cymru15.2% (+5.3%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 6.6% (+0.6%)0nc
Brexit Party6.7%  
Greens1.5% (+0.5%)  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour46.9% (-1.2%)49 – 52nc to +3
Conservatives27.8% (-4.2%)16 – 19-5 to -2
Liberal Democrats16.3% (+1.4%)4 – 6+1 to +3
Greens3.2% (+0.1%)

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP27.1% (-3.5%)6 – 9-2 to +1
Sinn Fein31.2% (+8.9%)6 – 8-1 to +1
Alliance15.8% (-1.0%)0 – 2-1 to +1
SDLP9.5% (-5.4%)1 – 2-1 to nc
UUP10.7% (-1.0%)0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – Too close to call between DUP Plurality and Sinn Fein Plurality

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One thought on “Forecast #GE2024 – 19th April 2023

  • Alex Collishaw

    So interesting! Thanks Peter… look forward to seeing how these numbers shift about in the coming months. The SNP story is crazy at the moment and with the new leader will be interesting to see how that affects everything.