Welsh Senedd – Forecast 6th May 2021


This is our final forecast for the Welsh Senedd Election. This is an on the day forecast.

Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats
Labour 39.5% (+4.8%) 23 (-4) 30.1% (-1.4%) 26 (-3)
Conservatives 31.2% (+10.2%) 11 (+5) 25.8% (+7.0%) 18 (+7)
Plaid Cymru 20.7% (+1.2%) 6 (n/c) 18.9% (-0.9%) 11 (-3)
Liberal Democrats 4.9% (-1.8%) 0 (-1) 4.2% (-2.3%) (n/c)
Abolish Welsh Assembly 2.2% (+2.2%) 0 (n/c) 6.9% (+6.9%) 4 (+4)
Greens 1.8% (-0.7%) 0 (n/c) 5.3% (+2.4%) 0 (n/c)
UKIP 1.6% (-10.9%) 0 (n/c) 1.9% (-6.5%) 0 (-7)

There have only been five polls in the past month, by only three firms, so this forecast should be viewed with a large degree of uncertainty.

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