Forecast #GE2024 – 2nd July 2024


This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

As we approach Polling Day, we make some adjustments to our forecast to try and incorporate the final trend in support for each party.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have adjusted the trend section of our model.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Commentary

Main highlights today are:

  • Continued improvement of Conservative vote, particularly in South of England
  • Labour pulling away from SNP in Scotland
  • Reform potential seats continuing to drop

We expect a large volume of polling over the next 48 hours. We will publish one forecast tomorrow, then at least one further forecast on Thursday.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour39.6% (+7.5%)428 – 439+228 to +239
Conservatives21.1% (-22.5%)121 – 123-250 to -248
Reform16.8% (+14.8%)0 – 14nc to +14
Liberal Democrats10.0% (-1.6%)40 – 47+31 to +38
Green6.1% (+3.4%)0 – 2-1 to +1
SNP2.9% (-1.0%)19 – 22-29 to -26
Plaid Cymru0.5% (-0.0%)2 – 4nc to +2
Speaker 1nc
Independents0 – 1nc to +1
Northern Ireland 18nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide

England

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.3% (+7.4%)378 – 388+197 to +207
Conservatives22.3% (-25.0%)110 – 113-243 to -240
Reform18.2% (+16.2%)0 – 14nc to +14
Liberal Democrats10.6% (-1.7%)36 – 42+29 to +35
Green6.8% (+3.8%)0 – 2-1 to +1
Speaker 1nc
Independent0 – 1nc to +1

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour35.3% (+16.8%)27 – 29+26 to +28
SNP33.4% (-11.6%)19 – 22-29 to -26
Conservatives13.5% (-11.7%)3 – 5-3 to -1
Liberal Democrats8.5% (-1.1%)3 – 6+1 to +4
Reform7.3% (+6.8%)0nc
Green2.1% (+1.1%)0nc

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour37.2% (-3.7%)21 – 24+3 to +6
Conservatives24.6% (-11.5%)5 – 8-7 to -4
Reform17.7% (+12.3%)0 nc
Plaid Cymru9.4% (-0.6%)2 – 4nc to +2
Liberal Democrats 6.6% (+0.6%)0nc
Green4.4% (+3.4%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein22.7% (-0.1%)6 – 8-1 to +1
DUP19.4% (-11.1%)4 – 7-4 to -1
Alliance19.6% (+2.9%)1 – 4nc to +3
UUP13.9% (+2.2%)0 – 2nc to +2
SDLP13.5% (-1.3%)1 – 3-1 to +1
TUV5.0% (new)0new

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

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