Scottish Parliament – Forecast 6th May 2021


This is our final forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast and was adjusted at 1130am (slight chage to percentage forecasts but no change to seats).

Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats
SNP 49.0% (+2.5%) 63 (+4) 37.9% (-4.8%) 64 (+1)
Conservatives 21.4% (-0.6%) 7 (n/c) 22.0% (-0.9%) 29 (-2)
Labour 21.1% (-1.5%) 0 (-3) 17.2% (-1.9%) 21 (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6.7% (-1.1%) 3 (-1) 5.9% (+0.7%) 4 (-1)
Greens 1.5% (+0.9%) 0 (n/c) 10.6% (+4.0%) 11 (+5)
Alba 3.6% (+3.6%) 0

Our on the day forecast shows the SNP agonisingly one seat short of an overall majority. Although there is a significant drop in support in the List vote for the SNP, but given their dominance in the FPTP constituencies it will have little overall impact on the final result. The Conservatives and Labour lose a few seats each (with Labour suffering in the constituencies against a resurgent SNP) whilst the Greens almost double their representation with a strong showing in the List vote.

The final result will be very close as there are a number of constituency seats which could go either way. Use the table below as results come in to see whether the forecast is accurate or not or whether the SNP does better or worse in the constituencies (which will determine whether it will have a majority or not).

Seat Prob Con Win Prob Labour Win Prob Lib Dem Win Prob SNP Win Most Likely Outcome
Aberdeenshire West 50.1% 49.9% Conservative Hold – Majority of 22
East Lothian 49.8% 50.2% SNP Gain – Majority of 110
Edinburgh Southern 49.7% 50.3% SNP Gain – Majority of 135
Edinburgh Central 50.4% 49.6% Conservative Hold – Majority of 166
Edinburgh Western 49.7% 50.3% SNP Gain – Majority of 197
Ayr 50.4% 49.6% Conservative Hold – Majority of 284
Dumfrieshire 51.2% 48.8% Conservative Hold – Majority of 634
North East Fife 51.2% 48.8% Lib Dem Hold – Majority of 633
Dumbarton 47.3% 52.7% SNP Gain – Majority of 1481

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