Scottish Referendum – Prediction on 15th of September

This is a Forward Looking prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote will be on the 18th of September.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 48.36%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This prediction is down 0.6% from yesterday.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 24.08%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 2,408  times. This prediction is down 10% from yesterday.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for the Yes vote.

Date Yes% 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
11th September 48.18 47.14 – 49.23 45.15 – 51.21
12th September 47.82 46.76 – 48.88 44.74 – 50.91
13th September 47.40 46.16 – 48.64 43.80 – 51.00
14th September 48.95 47.60 – 50.31 45.02 – 52.89
15th September 48.36 47.26 – 49.46 45.15 – 51.57

Why has your prediction for the Yes vote gone down when there are no new polls?

We have now been able to look in greater detail at some of the polls published at the weekend. This allows us to clarify our forecasts and firm up on the general trend in the polls.

Where do you see the polls going in the next four days?

At the moment the trend is broadly flat with a slight, but statistically insignificant move away from Yes. If this trend continues we should expect to see polls oscillate around the Yes = 48.5% mark.

If we see the trend move away from this 48.5% mark we will flag it up for you accordingly.

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