Scottish Referendum – Prediction on 16th of September

This is a Forward Looking prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote will be on the 18th of September.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 48.50%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This prediction is up almost 0.15% from yesterday.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 28.37%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 2,837 times. This prediction is up over 4% from yesterday.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for the Yes vote.

Date Yes% 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
11th September 48.18 47.14 – 49.23 45.15 – 51.21
12th September 47.82 46.76 – 48.88 44.74 – 50.91
13th September 47.40 46.16 – 48.64 43.80 – 51.00
14th September 48.95 47.60 – 50.31 45.02 – 52.89
15th September 48.36 47.26 – 49.46 45.15 – 51.57
16th September 48.50 47.08 – 49.93 44.36 – 52.65

Why has your prediction changed when there have been no new polls?

Our prediction takes into account the age of the polls. As the time between the original fieldwork of a poll and today increases, the reliability of the poll in telling us what sentiment is like right now decreases. This uncertainty is reflected in the widening confidence intervals and the shift in the centre point of the Yes vote distribution prediction.

Where do you see the Yes vote moving by Thursday?

At the moment the trend continues to be broadly flat. Our forecast has moved to the Yes = 48.5% mark, but this may change very rapidly if new polling data indicates a move in public opinion.

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