Scottish Referendum – Point in Time Prediction on 10th of September


This is a Point in Time prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote would be if the referendum happened today.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 49.76%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This is a movement of 0.25% upwards from yesterday’s prediction and represents a strong move towards an actual Yes victory.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 43.78%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 4,378 times. This is a movement of over 6.5% up from yesterday’s prediction.

There are currently too few data items to produce an 18th of September Forecast.

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