Scottish Referendum – Point in Time Prediction on 11th of September


This is a Point in Time prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote would be if the referendum happened today.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 49.37%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This is a movement of 0.4% down from yesterday’s prediction and represents a strong move away from an actual Yes victory.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 35.63%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 3,563  times.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for the Yes vote.

Date Yes% 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
8th September 49.46 47.60 – 51.32 45.74 – 53.18
9th September 49.51 48.00 – 51.01 46.94 – 52.52
10th September 49.76 48.26 – 51.27 46.75 – 52.78
11th September 49.37 47.65 – 51.08 45.94 – 52.80

There are currently too few data items to produce an 18th of September Forecast.

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