Scottish Referendum – Prediction on 12th of September

Please note – this is no longer a point in time forecast but rather now a forward looking forecast for the 18th of September.

This is a Forward Looking prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote will be on the 18th of September.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 47.82%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 11.55%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 1,155  times.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for the Yes vote.

Date Yes% 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
11th September 48.18 47.14 – 49.23 45.15 – 51.21
12th September 47.82 46.76 – 48.88 44.74 – 50.91

Why is this Forecast so different from the one posted yesterday?

Yesterday’s forecast was a “Point in Time” forecast indicating what the position would be if the vote had happened yesterday. With 7 days to go to the referendum we have now switched to an 18th of September forecast.

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