Scottish Referendum – Prediction on 13th of September

Please note – this is no longer a point in time forecast but rather now a forward looking forecast for the 18th of September.

This is a Forward Looking prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote will be on the 18th of September.

The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 47.40%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This prediction is down 0.42% from yesterday.

The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 10.73%.  This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 1,073  times. This prediction is down over 0.75% from yesterday.

The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for the Yes vote.

Date Yes% 50% Intervals 95% Intervals
11th September 48.18 47.14 – 49.23 45.15 – 51.21
12th September 47.82 46.76 – 48.88 44.74 – 50.91
13th September 47.40 46.16 – 48.64 43.80 – 51.00

Why is your prediction lower than most recent polls?

We take into account not just the most recent opinion polls but also the overall trajectory in recent days. At the moment the polls are indicating that there is a downward movement in support for “Yes”.

If there are more polls that show a rise in sentiment for “Yes” then our prediction may move up again.

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