UK 2015 – Forecast – 2nd May

5 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • We see clear movement back towards Labour
  • We see evidence that there is a move away from the SNP in Scotland

Changes indicated from Friday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 34.03% (-0.66%) 287 (+2)
Conservatives 33.27% (-1.03%) 267 (-1)
UKIP 14.72% (+1.28%) 2 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.51% (+0.02%) 27 (+2)
Green 4.57% (+0.54%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.69% (-0.12%) 43 (-4)
PC 0.77% (-0.03%) 4 (+1)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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