UK 2015 – Forecast – 3rd May


4 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.

Forecast

  • After a few days of movement towards Labour we now see evidence of a return to the Conservatives
  • We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
  • We believe that UKIP will win three seats (up from two yesterday). We believe the two will be Clacton, Thurrock and a third that is either Rochester or South Thanet.

Changes indicated from Saturday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 33.35% (-0.68%) 280 (-7)
Conservatives 33.17% (-0.10%) 270 (+3)
UKIP 14.50% (+0.78%) 3 (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7.98% (-0.53%) 26 (-1)
Green 4.89% (+0.32%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.98% (+0.29%) 48 (+5)
PC 0.65% (-0.12%) 3 (-1)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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