UK 2015 – Forecast – 3rd May

4 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • After a few days of movement towards Labour we now see evidence of a return to the Conservatives
  • We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
  • We believe that UKIP will win three seats (up from two yesterday). We believe the two will be Clacton, Thurrock and a third that is either Rochester or South Thanet.

Changes indicated from Saturday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 33.35% (-0.68%) 280 (-7)
Conservatives 33.17% (-0.10%) 270 (+3)
UKIP 14.50% (+0.78%) 3 (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7.98% (-0.53%) 26 (-1)
Green 4.89% (+0.32%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.98% (+0.29%) 48 (+5)
PC 0.65% (-0.12%) 3 (-1)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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