4 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- After a few days of movement towards Labour we now see evidence of a return to the Conservatives
- We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
- We believe that UKIP will win three seats (up from two yesterday). We believe the two will be Clacton, Thurrock and a third that is either Rochester or South Thanet.
Changes indicated from Saturday’s forecast.
|Labour||33.35% (-0.68%)||280 (-7)|
|Conservatives||33.17% (-0.10%)||270 (+3)|
|UKIP||14.50% (+0.78%)||3 (+1)|
|Liberal Democrats||7.98% (-0.53%)||26 (-1)|
|Green||4.89% (+0.32%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.98% (+0.29%)||48 (+5)|
|PC||0.65% (-0.12%)||3 (-1)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.