3 Days to Go.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- After some encouraging signs over the weekend, the Conservatives have now dropped away again from Labour
- We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
- We see evidence of a firming of the UKIP vote and we believe that UKIP will win three seats (up from two yesterday). We believe that two will be Clacton, Thurrock and a third that is either Rochester or South Thanet.
Changes indicated from Sunday’s forecast.
|Labour||33.29% (-0.06%)||284 (+4)|
|Conservatives||32.69% (-0.48%)||267 (-3)|
|UKIP||15.72% (+1.22%)||3 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.88% (+0.90%)||28 (+2)|
|Green||4.42% (+0.47%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.88% (-0.10%)||45 (-3)|
|PC||0.63% (-0.02%)||3 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.