UK 2015 – Forecast – 4th May 9


3 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.

Forecast

  • After some encouraging signs over the weekend, the Conservatives have now dropped away again from Labour
  • We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
  • We see evidence of a firming of the UKIP vote and we believe that UKIP will win three seats (up from two yesterday). We believe that two will be Clacton, Thurrock and a third that is either Rochester or South Thanet.

Changes indicated from Sunday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 33.29% (-0.06%) 284 (+4)
Conservatives 32.69% (-0.48%) 267 (-3)
UKIP 15.72% (+1.22%) 3 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.88% (+0.90%) 28 (+2)
Green 4.42% (+0.47%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.88% (-0.10%) 45 (-3)
PC 0.63% (-0.02%) 3 (nc)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.


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9 thoughts on “UK 2015 – Forecast – 4th May

    • Forecast UK - Peter Post author

      Thanks for that deep analytically driven psephological insight there.

      We go where the polling data takes us, not where our prejudices would like the outcome to become.

      • david arnold

        Most ” pundits ” give a Tory biggest party. Are you factoring in the likely hood of voting ( this usually favours the Tories ) and how do you see ” don’t Knows ” again usually favours incumbent ?

        • Forecast UK - Peter Post author

          Yes, and yes.

          My methodology tries to work out where the polls are moving and factors that in as well. It’s been quite successful in the past (beat all the polling firms at the Euros in 2014) but then translating votes into seats is a problem in itself. Will the whole country swing the same way? What is the incumbency effect? How reliable are the constituency polls.

          It may be that the last few days of polling reveal a different dynamic in public opinion which I’ll try to reflect.

  • Joe Finnes

    I sincerely hope your forecast is correct. Anyone who does not object in the most serious sense to the Conservatives subjugation and harrassment of the poorest, sickest and most vulnerable in our so called society, has no soul. I cling on to the belief that good overcomes evil and that Britain still has a soul. A civilised society is a just society, and right now, with Britain being investigated by the UN for ‘Systematic violations of disabled human rights’, this country is far from being just, or civilised. Beyond shameful, and shame on those who wish for the Conservatives to succeed.