2 Days to Go.
This forecast includes polls published up to 7pm on Tuesday evening.
We expect a large number of polls over the next 48 hours and our next forecast may be different to this one in response to new information.
- There is preliminary evidence of a late move to the Conservatives. We will look for confirmation of this in the next 24 hours of polls.
- We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
- There is clear movement to the Liberal Democrats over the past few days.
- Our last few forecasts have fluctuated between predicting two or three UKIP MPs. This forecast maintains the prediction at three, but this is based on the balance of probabilities that UKIP will win 3 of 4 key seats.
Changes indicated from Monday’s forecast.
|Labour||33.39% (+0.10%)||276 (-8)|
|Conservatives||33.02% (+0.33%)||269 (+2)|
|UKIP||13.92% (-1.80%)||3 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||9.71% (+0.83%)||30 (+2)|
|Green||4.92% (+0.50%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||4.03% (+0.15%)||49 (+4)|
|PC||0.51% (-0.12%)||3 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.