UK 2015 – Forecast – 5th May 3


2 Days to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This forecast includes polls published up to 7pm on Tuesday evening.

We expect a large number of polls over the next 48 hours and our next forecast may be different to this one in response to new information.

Forecast

  • There is preliminary evidence of a late move to the Conservatives. We will look for confirmation of this in the next 24 hours of polls.
  • We see evidence that the move away from the SNP has bottomed out.
  • There is clear movement to the Liberal Democrats over the past few days.
  • Our last few forecasts have fluctuated between predicting two or three UKIP MPs. This forecast maintains the prediction at three, but this is based on the balance of probabilities that UKIP will win 3 of 4 key seats.

Changes indicated from Monday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 33.39% (+0.10%) 276 (-8)
Conservatives 33.02% (+0.33%) 269 (+2)
UKIP 13.92% (-1.80%) 3 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 9.71% (+0.83%) 30 (+2)
Green 4.92% (+0.50%) 1 (nc)
SNP 4.03% (+0.15%) 49 (+4)
PC 0.51% (-0.12%) 3 (nc)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.


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3 thoughts on “UK 2015 – Forecast – 5th May

  • Richard

    Peter this forecast sits directly against the bookies who if their odds are to be believed see the probability of the Tory’s being the largest party at around 85%. Are the bookies factoring in a last minute Tory surge from UKIP?

    • Forecast UK - Peter Post author

      Yes, they’re factoring an uplift on the Tory vote, a “reversion to the mean”. I’m trying to spot that in the polling data – I think there are early signs but it may take up to the polls published tomorrow to confirm that. Even then, I can’t account for “on the day” moves (like happened in 1992).

  • arnric62

    It has struck me that the last YouGov poll before last year’s European election got UKIP support pretty much correct, but understated the Conservative vote significantly. They also overstated the Liberal Democrats. Weight present values accordingly, and things would start to get rather interesting!