UK 2015 – Forecast – 6th May


1 Day to Go.

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This forecast includes polls published up to 7pm on Wednesday evening.

We expect more polls before tomorrow and we will issue two more forecasts, at 7am and 7pm tomorrow..

Forecast

  • There is preliminary evidence of a late move to the Conservatives. We will look for confirmation of this in the next 24 hours of polls.
  • The SNP are increasing their support
  • There is clear movement to the Liberal Democrats over the past few days.
  • Our last few forecasts have fluctuated between predicting two or three UKIP MPs. This forecast moves the prediction down to two as we see the UKIP vote squeezed, but this is based on the balance of probabilities that UKIP will win 2 of 4 key seats.

Changes indicated from Tuesday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Conservatives 34.22% (+1.20%) 274 (+5)
Labour 33.77% (+0.38%) 274 (-2)
UKIP 12.86% (-1.06%) 2 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9.18% (-0.53%) 27 (-3)
Green 4.76% (-0.16%) 1 (nc)
SNP 4.07% (+0.04%) 50 (+1)
PC 0.65% (+0.14%) 3 (nc)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

Specific Seat Probabilities

Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.

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