This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- Our latest forecast indicates an increase in support for UKIP. This is a statistically significant increase and reflects our confidence (using EWMA analysis which will be updated on the site shortly) that despite yesterday’s dip, UKIP has risen over the past week to a new level in the polls.
- The Conservatives have taken a narrow lead in vote share.
- There is little movement in seats predicted however and Labour have increased their lead marginally.
Changes indicated from yesterday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 32.70% (-1.97%) | 284 (-1) |
| Conservatives | 32.92% (-1.7%) | 267 (-5) |
| UKIP | 16.50% (+3.61%) | 2 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.39% (+0.46%) | 30 (+6) |
| Green | 4.70% (-0.41%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 3.64% (-0.04%) | 44 (nc) |
| PC | 0.66% (+0.01%) | 3 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |