UK 2015 – Forecast – 23rd April

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.

This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.


  • Our latest forecast indicates an increase in support for UKIP. This is a statistically significant increase and reflects our confidence (using EWMA analysis which will be updated on the site shortly) that despite yesterday’s dip, UKIP has risen over the past week to a new level in the polls.
  • The Conservatives have taken a narrow lead in vote share.
  • There is little movement in seats predicted however and Labour have increased their lead marginally.

Changes indicated from yesterday’s forecast.

% Vote Seats
Labour 32.70% (-1.97%) 284 (-1)
Conservatives 32.92% (-1.7%) 267 (-5)
UKIP 16.50% (+3.61%) 2 (nc)
Liberal Democrats 8.39% (+0.46%) 30 (+6)
Green 4.70% (-0.41%) 1 (nc)
SNP 3.64% (-0.04%) 44 (nc)
PC 0.66% (+0.01%) 3 (nc)
Others inc. Speaker (GB) 1 (nc)
Irish 18

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