Forecast #GE2019 – 28th October 2019


This is our latest forecast for a potential December 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory”.

Polling since our last forecast shows a recovery of the Conservative position across the whole country. The Brexit Party has now lost a third of it’s support since a month ago and the majority of this vote has moved to the Tories. Support continues to move from the Liberal Democrats to Labour,

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Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. We continue see evidence of votes moving from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives as Leave electors consolidate around Boris Johnson.

In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives continue to consolidate their position as the main challengers to the SNP. The Liberal Democrats push Labour into fourth place in the share of the vote and have a clear lead on seats.

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The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and we now show a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is our most volatile forecast with small subsamples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives36.7% (34.4% – 39.0%)343 – 364+26 to +49
 Labour24.4% (22.3% – 26.5%)185 – 200-77 to -62
 SNP3.4% 46 – 48+11 to +13
Liberal Democrats17.7% (15.0% – 20.4%)27 – 36+15 to +24
Brexit Party10.5% (9.9% – 11.1%)0 – 3– to +3
Plaid Cymru0.6%3 – 5-1 to +1
Green3.5% (2.6% – 4.4%)0 -2-1 to +1
Independent0-2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP41.2%46 – 48+11 to +13
Conservatives24.7%5 – 8-8 to -5
Liberal Democrats 15.1%3 – 6 -1 to +2
Labour12.4%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 4.0%
Greens2.3%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Conservatives35.5%16 – 25+8 to +17
Labour 24.8%10 – 19 -18 to -9
Liberal Democrats 14.7% 0 – 20 to +2
Plaid Cymru12.1% 3 – 5-1 to +1
Brexit Party10.5%   
Greens2.0%   

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour35.4%40 – 42-9 to -7
Conservatives28.6%21 – 240 to +3
Liberal Democrats25.0%8 – 11+5 to +8
Brexit Party5.9%
Greens4.7%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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