EU Referendum – Forecast 21st June 2016


This post has been updated with the Survation and ORB polls released on the afternoon of the 21st of June.

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is held on Thursday.

Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP.

Our forecast shows a continued move back away from Leave.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 28.77%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 48.55%

Our current forecast is that on the 23rd of June, the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

This forecast will be updated as new polling data is available.

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