EU Referendum – Forecast 22nd June 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is held on tomorrow.

Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP.

Our forecast shows that Leave has recovered most of the losses of the last few days and is now running almost neck and neck with Remain.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 47.71%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 49.91%

Our current forecast is that the Referendum is too close to call.

Our analysis indicates that there may be as little 0.2% of the total vote between Leave and Remain. Polling over the last few days indicates a strong recovery for Leave. This combined with postal voting done prior to the murder of Jo Cox MP which other polling suggests leans towards Leave means that we believe the referendum is currently too close to call.

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