EU Referendum – Forecast 23rd June 2016

This post has been updated to take account of the full details of the MORI poll.

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is an On the Day Forecast, meaning it is a forecast published on the day of the referendum including polling results published this morning, but contains no data gathered since the opening of the polls at 7am.

Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP.

Our Forecast shows that the situation is even tighter than yesterday and is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 51.25%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 50.08%
50% confidence interval of Leave Vote 48.38% – 51.78%
95% confidence interval of Leave Vote 45.93% – 54.23%

Our current forecast is that the Referendum is too close to call. It is most likely that the Leave vote will be between 48.38% and 51.78%. The Leave vote is very unlikely to be lower than 45.93% or higher than 54.23%

Our analysis indicates that if current polling is correct there may be as little 0.2% of the total vote between Leave and Remain. Polling over the last few days indicates a strong recovery for Leave.


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