EU Referendum – Forecast 2nd May 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 62.36%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 50.94%

Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.

ICM confirm the trend seen in from Opinium and ORB for a “Leave” vote, moving our Point in Time estimate further into the positive. The probability of a leave vote also continues to rise as four out of the five last polls have shown a win for Leave or a dead heat.

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