This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.
Our Forecast is as follows.
|Probability of a Leave Vote||62.36%|
|Most Likely Leave Vote %||50.94%|
Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.
ICM confirm the trend seen in from Opinium and ORB for a “Leave” vote, moving our Point in Time estimate further into the positive. The probability of a leave vote also continues to rise as four out of the five last polls have shown a win for Leave or a dead heat.