EU Referendum – Forecast 1st May 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 50.53%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 50.04%

Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.

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Two more polls (from Opinium and ORB) confirm the continuing trend towards “Leave”. For the first time ever the Forecast UK Point in Time tracker moves into predicting a Leave vote, but by the narrowest of margins.

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