EU Referendum – Forecast 1st May 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 50.53%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 50.04%

Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.

Two more polls (from Opinium and ORB) confirm the continuing trend towards “Leave”. For the first time ever the Forecast UK Point in Time tracker moves into predicting a Leave vote, but by the narrowest of margins.

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