This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.
Our Forecast is as follows.
|Probability of a Leave Vote||34.92%|
|Most Likely Leave Vote %||48.69%|
Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.
Polling in the last 48 hours confirms a reversal to last week’s trend away from Leave. Commentator speculation as to whether this is a reaction to external interventions in the UK debate (most notably remarks by Barack Obama, the President of the USA) have not been verified by any qualitative research.
There is still a clear difference between online and phone polling with online surveys much more likely to show support for Leave.