EU Referendum – Forecast 28th April 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 34.92%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 48.69%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.

Polling in the last 48 hours confirms a reversal to last week’s trend away from Leave. Commentator speculation as to whether this is a reaction to external interventions in the UK debate (most notably remarks by Barack Obama, the President of the USA) have not been verified by any qualitative research.

There is still a clear difference between online and phone polling with online surveys much more likely to show support for Leave.

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