Scottish Parliament – Forecast 28th April 2016


This is our first forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is a forward in time forecast, meaning this is what we believe will happen on Thursday 5th May.

Party List Vote Seats List Change (2011) Seat Change (2011)
SNP 44.5% 70 +0.5% +1
Labour 20.3% 24 -6.0% 13
Conservatives 18.6% 22 +6.2% +7
Greens 9.0% 9 +4.6% +7
Liberal Democrats 5.5% 4 +0.3% 1
Others 0 1

Although there is speculation that the Conservatives may overtake Labour to become the official opposition, our analysis suggests that this will not happen unless the polling evidence changes. We believe that there is a 29.5% chance of the Conservatives becoming the official opposition on the current polling evidence.

Despite this, Labour is the clear loser in our forecast, losing over a third of their current seats. The Liberal Democrats will maintain their support from 2011, but will lose one seat in the d’hondt calculations.

We will update this forecast when there is new polling data.

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