EU Referendum – Forecast 27th April 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 12.59%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 46.17%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.

Two new polls in the past 24 hours indicate a slight reversal to last week’s trend away from Leave. There is still a clear difference between online and phone polling with online surveys much more likely to show support for Leave.

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