EU Referendum – Forecast 26th April 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 0.04%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 43.51%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.

New polling results confirm the move away from “Leave” and towards “Remain” over the past week. Polling data has been minimal over the past seven days but there has been no indication that the current low position for “Leave” is changing.

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