EU Referendum – Forecast 21st April 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 5.41%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 44.68%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.

Recent polling results over the past few days indicates a clear trend away from “Leave” and towards “Remain”, though our analysis indicates that current “Remain” polling may be slightly on the high side.

The above figures may change very quickly as the campaign progresses.

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