This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.
Our Forecast is as follows.
|Probability of a Leave Vote||21.44%|
|Most Likely Leave Vote %||47.36%|
Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.
The current polling is short on data points but recent polls indicate a movement away from Leave. The above figures may change very quickly as the campaign progresses.