EU Referendum – Forecast 19th April 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 21.44%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 47.36%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.


The current polling is short on data points but recent polls indicate a movement away from Leave. The above figures may change very quickly as the campaign progresses.

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