EU Referendum – Forecast 17th April 2016


This is our first forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 43.04%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 49.80%

Our current forecast is that the UK will remain in the EU.

The current polling is short on data points and the above figures may change very quickly as the campaign progresses.

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