EU Referendum – Forecast 3rd May 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 95.12%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 62.36%

Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.

ICM’s second poll in the last few days confirm the trend seen in from Opinium and ORB for a “Leave” vote, moving our Point in Time estimate further into the positive. Almost every single poll is now showing a Leave vote and this moves our probability of Leave above 95%

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