EU Referendum – Forecast 3rd May 2016


This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker.

Our Forecast is as follows.

Probability of a Leave Vote 95.12%
Most Likely Leave Vote % 62.36%

Our current forecast is that if the Referendum were held today, the UK would leave the EU.

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ICM’s second poll in the last few days confirm the trend seen in from Opinium and ORB for a “Leave” vote, moving our Point in Time estimate further into the positive. Almost every single poll is now showing a Leave vote and this moves our probability of Leave above 95%

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