Scottish Parliament – Forecast 5th May 2016

This is our forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast.

Party List Vote Seats List Change (2011) Seat Change (2011)
SNP 41.8% 69 -2.2% n/c
Conservatives 20.0% 24 +7.6% +9
Labour 19.1% 22 -7.2% 15
Greens 8.0% 8 +3.6% +6
Liberal Democrats 6.0% 6 +0.8% +1
Others 0 1

We now predict that the Conservatives will poll higher than Labour in the regional lists. The probability of them doing this is 68.7% and reflects a clear move away from both the SNP and Labour in the past week. We expect the Conservatives to also do better in the constituency votes and to outperform Labour by two seats overall.

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