US 2020


US Election Nowcast – 22nd October 2020 2   Recently updated !

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 376 (+26) 160 (-26) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.00% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 0.00% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 148 – 170 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 20th October 2020   Recently updated !

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 350 (+6) 188 (-6) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.07% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.87% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 2.43% Probability Tie 0.01% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 170 – 211 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 17th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 344 (-6) 194 (+6) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.02% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.62% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 1.94% Probability Tie 0% Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) 188 – 8.3% likely Trump Median EC Vote (Centre […]


US Election Nowcast – 15th October 2020   Recently updated !

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 350 (+10) 188 (-10) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.15% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 0.99% Probability Tie 0% Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) 188 – 8.3% likely Trump Median EC Vote (Centre […]


US Election Forecast – 2nd October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 363 175 Biden continues to show strong performance in most swing states, producing a commanding lead in the Electoral College. Our State by State analysis is as follows. State Prob Biden Win Commentary Alabama 9.4% Polling continues to be light with no new data since the […]