US Election Forecast – 2nd November 2020

Current Forecast

349 (nc)187 (nc)
Changes from yesterday

This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday.

With one days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win a very slim chance. A large amount of polling released in the past 24 hours has changed a few of the races (some dramatically), but overall Trump is still well behind. Our distribution of potential results is much wider than yesterday, showing that more States are now in contention for both candidates.

Key changes since yesterday

Georgia is now too close to call
Biden back in control in Maine 2
Trump surge in North Carolina and Ohio. The latter is now his to lose.
Biden challenging in Texas

We expect a few more polls to be released over the next 24 hours and we will produce our final forecast tomorrow, together with a guide to where we think each State will end up.

Probability Trump Victory0.01%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes0.33%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes1.74%
Probability Tie0.00%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes169 – 203
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)187 – 4.5% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)187 – 4.5% likely
Type of StateEC VotesStates
Safe Biden199
Safe Biden – Swing State74Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Maine 2 (1)
Strong Biden62Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Soft Biden
Tie16Georgia (16)
Soft Trump18Ohio (18)
Strong Trump57Texas (38)
Missouri (10)
Iowa (6)
Alaska (3)
Safe Trump – Swing State35
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Louisiana (8)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
Safe Trump77
Based on Criteria Below
StateStatusProb Biden WinCommentary
AlabamaSafe Trump0%New polling confirms Safe Trump
AlaskaStrong Trump12.2%No new polling
ArizonaStrong Biden82.6%Slight movement to Trump in last 24 hours
FloridaStrong Biden84.6%Good polling for Biden in last 24 hours
(Soft Biden)
54.1%New polls suggest neck and neck race
IowaStrong Trump35.0%Some movement to Biden but still looking good for Trump
KansasSafe Trump1.1%No new polling
LouisianaSafe Trump1.7%No new polling
Maine 2Strong Biden
(Soft Biden)
93.8%Good poll from Emerson puts Biden back in control
MichiganSafe Biden98.5%A small rise again for Trump, but Biden’s lead is still probably 7%
MinnesotaSafe Biden100%New polling confirms clear Biden lead
MissouriSafe Trump
(Strong Trump)
0%New poll confirms clear Trump lead
MontanaSafe Trump0%No new polling
Nebraska 2Strong Biden86.3%Emerson College poll shows much narrower race
NevadaSafe Biden97.1%Some small movement to Trump, but still Safe Biden
New HampshireSafe Biden98%Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty
North CarolinaSoft Biden
(Strong Biden)
59.2%Flurry of polls shows Trump surge
OhioSoft Trump
(Strong Biden)
37.8%Flurry of polls shows clear Trump surge
PennsylvaniaSafe Biden96.4%Little movement in final polls
South CarolinaSafe Trump0%New polls confirm Trump dominance
TexasStrong Trump
(Safe Trump)
30.6%Last minute surge for Biden
VirginiaSafe Biden100%New polling confirms safe Biden
WisconsinSafe Biden98.8%Small move to Trump

Probability of Biden Winning State

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.

What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?

We allocate a State a grade on the following basis

Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation

Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning

Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning

Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate

Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.

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