|349 (nc)||187 (nc)|
This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday.
With one days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win a very slim chance. A large amount of polling released in the past 24 hours has changed a few of the races (some dramatically), but overall Trump is still well behind. Our distribution of potential results is much wider than yesterday, showing that more States are now in contention for both candidates.
Key changes since yesterday
Georgia is now too close to call
Biden back in control in Maine 2
Trump surge in North Carolina and Ohio. The latter is now his to lose.
Biden challenging in Texas
We expect a few more polls to be released over the next 24 hours and we will produce our final forecast tomorrow, together with a guide to where we think each State will end up.
|Probability Trump Victory||0.01%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.33%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||1.74%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||169 – 203|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||187 – 4.5% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||187 – 4.5% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||74||Pennsylvania (20)|
New Hampshire (4)
Maine 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||62||Florida (29)|
North Carolina (15)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Soft Trump||18||Ohio (18)|
|Strong Trump||57||Texas (38)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||New polling confirms Safe Trump|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||12.2%||No new polling|
|Arizona||Strong Biden||82.6%||Slight movement to Trump in last 24 hours|
|Florida||Strong Biden||84.6%||Good polling for Biden in last 24 hours|
|54.1%||New polls suggest neck and neck race|
|Iowa||Strong Trump||35.0%||Some movement to Biden but still looking good for Trump|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||1.1%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||1.7%||No new polling|
|Maine 2||Strong Biden|
|93.8%||Good poll from Emerson puts Biden back in control|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||98.5%||A small rise again for Trump, but Biden’s lead is still probably 7%|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||100%||New polling confirms clear Biden lead|
|0%||New poll confirms clear Trump lead|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Nebraska 2||Strong Biden||86.3%||Emerson College poll shows much narrower race|
|Nevada||Safe Biden||97.1%||Some small movement to Trump, but still Safe Biden|
|New Hampshire||Safe Biden||98%||Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty|
|North Carolina||Soft Biden|
|59.2%||Flurry of polls shows Trump surge|
|37.8%||Flurry of polls shows clear Trump surge|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||96.4%||Little movement in final polls|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||New polls confirm Trump dominance|
|30.6%||Last minute surge for Biden|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||New polling confirms safe Biden|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||98.8%||Small move to Trump|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.