US Election Forecast – 3rd November 2020

Current Forecast

349 (nc)187 (nc)
Changes from yesterday

This is our latest Forecast. Unless any new polling is released this is our final forecast and includes our central point prediction for each state.

On polling day we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win a very slim chance.The final polling released in the past 24 hours has changed a few of the races (some dramatically), but overall Trump is still well behind.

Probability Trump Victory0.02%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes0.40%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes1.49%
Probability Tie0.00%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes169 – 203
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)187 – 6.1% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)187 – 6.1% likely
Type of StateEC VotesStates
Safe Biden199
Safe Biden – Swing State74Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Maine 2 (1)
Strong Biden62Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Soft Biden16Georgia (16)
Soft Trump18Ohio (18)
Strong Trump57Texas (38)
Missouri (10)
Iowa (6)
Alaska (3)
Safe Trump – Swing State35
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Louisiana (8)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
Safe Trump77
Based on Criteria Below
StateStatusProb Biden WinMost Likely Result (Candidate / Lead)Commentary
AlabamaSafe Trump0%Trump 19.5%No new polling
AlaskaStrong Trump12.2%Trump 8.5%No new polling
ArizonaStrong Biden72.2%Biden 1.5%Continued signs of Trump improvement
FloridaStrong Biden84.1%Biden 3%New polling indicates little change from yesterday
GeorgiaSoft Biden
62.9%Biden 1.0%Improvements for Biden moves the State to Soft Biden
IowaStrong Trump32.5%Trump 1.5%Slight improvements for Trump in last 24 hours
KansasSafe Trump0.1%Trump 14%New poll confirms Trump dominance
LouisianaSafe Trump1.7%Trump 19%No new polling
Maine 2Strong Biden93.8%Biden 2.5%No new polling
MichiganSafe Biden99.2%Biden 8%Slight improvement for Biden
MinnesotaSafe Biden100%Biden 8.5%New polling confirms clear Biden lead
MissouriSafe Trump0%Trump 8.5%No new polling
MontanaSafe Trump0%Trump 7%No new polling
Nebraska 2Strong Biden86.3%Biden 4%Emerson College poll shows much narrower race
NevadaSafe Biden99.8%Biden 6%Some small movement to Trump, but still Safe Biden
New HampshireSafe Biden98%Biden 11%Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty
North CarolinaStrong Biden
(Soft Biden)
75.7%Biden 1.5%Good recovery for Biden in last few polls
OhioSoft Trump32.1%Trump 1%Flurry of polls shows clear Trump surge
PennsylvaniaSafe Biden96.0%Biden 5%Little movement in final polls
South CarolinaSafe Trump0%Trump 7.5%New polls confirm Trump dominance
TexasStrong Trump30.6%Trump 1%No new polling
VirginiaSafe Biden100%Biden 11%No new polling
WisconsinSafe Biden99.0%Biden 7%No change with new polling

Probability of Biden Winning State

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.

What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?

We allocate a State a grade on the following basis

Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation

Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning

Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning

Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate

Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.

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