|349 (nc)||187 (nc)|
This is our latest Forecast. Unless any new polling is released this is our final forecast and includes our central point prediction for each state.
On polling day we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win a very slim chance.The final polling released in the past 24 hours has changed a few of the races (some dramatically), but overall Trump is still well behind.
|Probability Trump Victory||0.02%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.40%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||1.49%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||169 – 203|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||187 – 6.1% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||187 – 6.1% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||74||Pennsylvania (20)|
New Hampshire (4)
Maine 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||62||Florida (29)|
North Carolina (15)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Soft Biden||16||Georgia (16)|
|Soft Trump||18||Ohio (18)|
|Strong Trump||57||Texas (38)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Most Likely Result (Candidate / Lead)||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||Trump 19.5%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||12.2%||Trump 8.5%||No new polling|
|Arizona||Strong Biden||72.2%||Biden 1.5%||Continued signs of Trump improvement|
|Florida||Strong Biden||84.1%||Biden 3%||New polling indicates little change from yesterday|
|62.9%||Biden 1.0%||Improvements for Biden moves the State to Soft Biden|
|Iowa||Strong Trump||32.5%||Trump 1.5%||Slight improvements for Trump in last 24 hours|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||0.1%||Trump 14%||New poll confirms Trump dominance|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||1.7%||Trump 19%||No new polling|
|Maine 2||Strong Biden||93.8%||Biden 2.5%||No new polling|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||99.2%||Biden 8%||Slight improvement for Biden|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||100%||Biden 8.5%||New polling confirms clear Biden lead|
|Missouri||Safe Trump||0%||Trump 8.5%||No new polling|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||Trump 7%||No new polling|
|Nebraska 2||Strong Biden||86.3%||Biden 4%||Emerson College poll shows much narrower race|
|Nevada||Safe Biden||99.8%||Biden 6%||Some small movement to Trump, but still Safe Biden|
|New Hampshire||Safe Biden||98%||Biden 11%||Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty|
|North Carolina||Strong Biden|
|75.7%||Biden 1.5%||Good recovery for Biden in last few polls|
|Ohio||Soft Trump||32.1%||Trump 1%||Flurry of polls shows clear Trump surge|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||96.0%||Biden 5%||Little movement in final polls|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||Trump 7.5%||New polls confirm Trump dominance|
|Texas||Strong Trump||30.6%||Trump 1%||No new polling|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||Biden 11%||No new polling|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||99.0%||Biden 7%||No change with new polling|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.