|349 (-6)||187 (+6)|
This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday.
With two days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win unattainable. Although there continues to be some small evidence of Trump tightening the race in some States, it is not enough to pose a serious challenge to the Democrats’ hopes of regaining the White House.
Key changes since yesterday
Slight improvement for Trump in Florida and Georgia
Trump takes lead in Iowa
Small movements to Trump in Nebraska 2
Strengthening position for Biden in North Carolina
Texas moves to Safe Trump
|Probability Trump Victory||0.00%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.15%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||0.93%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||173 – 203|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||169 – 7.3% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||187 – 3.6% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||88||Pennsylvania (20)|
North Carolina (15)
New Hampshire (4)
|Strong Biden||66||Florida (29)|
Maine 2 (1)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Soft Biden||16||Georgia (16)|
|Strong Trump||57||Texas (38)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||12.2%||No new polling|
|Arizona||Strong Biden||87.0%||New poll from Siena confirms strong Biden position|
|Florida||Strong Biden||72.9%||New polls show slightly better Trump position|
|67.0%||Two new polls show Biden lead narrowing|
|21.5%||Two new polls high quality polls show dramatic shift to Trump|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||1.1%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||1.7%||No new polling|
|Maine 2||Soft Biden||62.1%||No new polling|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||99.5%||New polls show small rise for Trump but still a massive Biden lead|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||95.6%||No new polling|
|Missouri||Strong Trump||9.8%||No new polling|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Nebraska 2||Strong Biden|
|86.3%||Emerson College poll shows much narrower race|
|Nevada||Safe Biden||100%||No new polling|
|New Hampshire||Safe Biden||98%||Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty|
|North Carolina||Strong Biden|
|83.7%||CNN poll confirms strong Biden position|
|Ohio||Strong Biden||71.5%||New Emerson poll confirms narrow Biden lead. We’re expecting more polling in next 24 hours.|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||96.1%||Small movements to Trump in recent polls, but still a commanding Biden lead|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|1.0%||Looking very safe for Trump|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||No new polling|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||99.5%||Continued clear water for Biden|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.