US Election Forecast – 1st November 2020

Current Forecast

349 (-6)187 (+6)
Changes from yesterday

This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday.

With two days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win unattainable. Although there continues to be some small evidence of Trump tightening the race in some States, it is not enough to pose a serious challenge to the Democrats’ hopes of regaining the White House.

Key changes since yesterday

Slight improvement for Trump in Florida and Georgia
Trump takes lead in Iowa
Small movements to Trump in Nebraska 2
Strengthening position for Biden in North Carolina
Texas moves to Safe Trump

Probability Trump Victory0.00%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes0.15%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes0.93%
Probability Tie0.00%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes173 – 203
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)169 – 7.3% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)187 – 3.6% likely
Type of StateEC VotesStates
Safe Biden199
Safe Biden – Swing State88Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Strong Biden66Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)
Maine 2 (1)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Soft Biden16Georgia (16)
Soft Trump
Strong Trump57Texas (38)
Missouri (10)
Iowa (6)
Alaska (3)
Safe Trump – Swing State35
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Louisiana (8)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
Safe Trump77
Based on Criteria Below
StateStatusProb Biden WinCommentary
AlabamaSafe Trump0%No new polling
AlaskaStrong Trump12.2%No new polling
ArizonaStrong Biden87.0%New poll from Siena confirms strong Biden position
FloridaStrong Biden72.9%New polls show slightly better Trump position
GeorgiaSoft Biden
(Strong Biden)
67.0%Two new polls show Biden lead narrowing
IowaStrong Trump
(Soft Biden)
21.5%Two new polls high quality polls show dramatic shift to Trump
KansasSafe Trump1.1%No new polling
LouisianaSafe Trump1.7%No new polling
Maine 2Soft Biden62.1%No new polling
MichiganSafe Biden99.5%New polls show small rise for Trump but still a massive Biden lead
MinnesotaSafe Biden95.6%No new polling
MissouriStrong Trump9.8%No new polling
MontanaSafe Trump0%No new polling
Nebraska 2Strong Biden
(Safe Biden)
86.3%Emerson College poll shows much narrower race
NevadaSafe Biden100%No new polling
New HampshireSafe Biden98%Added into watch table as Biden has moved away from 100% certainty
North CarolinaStrong Biden
(Soft Biden)
83.7%CNN poll confirms strong Biden position
OhioStrong Biden71.5%New Emerson poll confirms narrow Biden lead. We’re expecting more polling in next 24 hours.
PennsylvaniaSafe Biden96.1%Small movements to Trump in recent polls, but still a commanding Biden lead
South CarolinaSafe Trump0%No new polling
TexasSafe Trump
(Strong Trump)
1.0%Looking very safe for Trump
VirginiaSafe Biden100%No new polling
WisconsinSafe Biden99.5%Continued clear water for Biden

Probability of Biden Winning State

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.

What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?

We allocate a State a grade on the following basis

Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation

Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning

Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning

Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate

Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, butleave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.

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