|350 (+6)||188 (-6)|
|Probability Trump Victory||0.07%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.87%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||2.43%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||170 – 211|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||188 – 5.7% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||188 – 5.7% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||49||Virginia (13)|
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||83||Pennsylvania (20)|
North Carolina (15)
|Soft Biden||29||Florida (29)|
|Soft Trump||38||Texas (38)|
|Strong Trump||38||Ohio (18)|
Maine 2 (1)
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
Although our central point Nowcast has fallen back to 188 EC votes, Trump’s chances of winning in our latest Nowcast have risen slightly. There is slightly more uncertainty in a number of States and this is leading to a wider spread on likely (and not so likely) outcomes.
A number of key States (for example Texas) are woefully under-polled at the moment and we expect to see lots of new data over the next few days to flesh out the position here.
Still not looking as good for Trump as at this point four years ago, but we continue to see signs that the race might yet be tightening.
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||All polling points to Trump certainty|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||20.3%||No new polling|
|Arizona||Safe Biden||100%||Clearly back in the Biden camp|
|Florida||Soft Biden||61.1%||Trump continues to improve his position here|
|Georgia||Strong Biden||71.2%||Clear signs of Trump recovering support|
|10.2%||Trump has strengthened his position here|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||0.3%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||0.6%||No new polling|
|Maine 2||Soft Trump||35.1%||No new polling|
|Michigan||Strong Biden||93.5%||Continued evidence of slight improvements for Trump|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||99.9%||No new polling|
|0%||New polling shows clear Trump lead|
|Montana||Safe Trump||4.3%||No new polling|
|Nebraska 2||Safe Biden||98.9%||No new polling|
|Nevada||Strong Biden||77.4%||No new polling|
|North Carolina||Strong Biden||86.2%||No new polling|
|Ohio||Strong Trump||15.2%||No new polling|
|Pennsylvania||Strong Biden||92.2%||Continued small improvements for Trump|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|42.1%||Texas is remarkably under-polled for such a crucial State. One new poll indicates that the race here is getting tighter and tighter.|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||Continued strong polling for Biden|
|Wisconsin||Strong Biden||94.6%||After the recent wobbles for Biden, better results from more recent polling|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (3.7% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.