Current Nowcast
| Biden | Trump |
|---|---|
| 344 (-6) | 194 (+6) |
| Probability Trump Victory | 0.02% |
| Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes | 0.62% |
| Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes | 1.94% |
| Probability Tie | 0% |
| Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) | 188 – 8.3% likely |
| Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution) | 194 – 3.0% likely |
| Type of State | EC Votes | States |
|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 199 | |
| Safe Biden – Swing State | 59 | Virginia (13) Arizona (11) Minnesota (10) Wisconsin (10) New Hampshire (4) Nebraska 2 (1) |
| Strong Biden | 73 | Pennsylvania (20) Georgia (16) Michigan (16) North Carolina (15) Nevada (6) |
| Soft Biden | 29 | Florida (29) |
| Tie | ||
| Soft Trump | ||
| Strong Trump | 76 | Texas (38) Ohio (18) Missouri (10) Iowa (6) Alaska (3) Maine 2 (1) |
| Safe Trump – Swing State | 35 | Alabama (9) South Carolina (9) Louisiana (8) Kansas (6) Montana (3) |
| Safe Trump | 77 |
Some small improvements for Trump over the past few days. Better polling has moved a number of key states out of the “Safe” category for Biden, but Tump still needs a large increase in support to be a serious challenge for re-election.
| State | Status | Prob Biden Win | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe Trump | 2.8% | No new polling |
| Alaska | Strong Trump (Safe Trump) | 24.9% | One new inconclusive poll with very low figures for both candidates |
| Arizona | Safe Biden (Strong Biden) | 99.9% | Clearly back in the Biden camp |
| Florida | Soft Biden | 61.1% | Trump continues to improve his position here |
| Georgia | Strong Biden (Strong Trump) | 83.7% | No new polling |
| Iowa | Strong Trump (Soft Trump) | 10.2% | Trump has strengthened his position here |
| Kansas | Safe Trump | 0.3% | No new polling |
| Louisiana | Safe Trump | 0.6% | No change on last week’s forecast. This is Safe Trump. |
| Maine 2 | Soft Trump (Strong Trump) | 35.1% | New polling shows improved position for Biden |
| Michigan | Strong Biden (Safe Biden) | 93.8% | Continued evidence of slight improvements for Trump |
| Minnesota | Safe Biden | 99.9% | No new polling |
| Missouri | Strong Trump | 5.4% | No new polling |
| Nevada | Strong Biden (Safe Biden) | 77.4% | Some improvement for Trump |
| North Carolina | Strong Biden | 86.2% | Continued evidence in recent polling that Trump might be improving here. Biden hasn’t lost a poll here since 25 September, but isn’t safe yet. |
| Ohio | Strong Trump (Soft Trump) | 15.2% | Strengthened position for Trump |
| Pennsylvania | Strong Biden (Safe Biden) | 93.9% | Continued small improvements for Trump |
| South Carolina | Safe Trump | 0% | Still polling consistently well for Trump. |
| Texas | Strong Trump | 19.5% | No new polling |
| Virginia | Safe Biden | 99.9% | Continued strong polling for Biden |
| Wisconsin | Safe Biden | 99.3% | As in other key states, some small evidence of improvements for Trump but nothing that should yet worry Biden. |
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Weak?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (4.8% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.