|350 (+10)||188 (-10)|
|Probability Trump Victory||0%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.15%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||0.99%|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||188 – 8.3% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||188|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||90||Pennsylvania (20)|
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||71||Florida (29)|
North Carolina (15)
|Soft Trump||24||Iowa (6)|
|Strong Trump||48||Texas (38)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||39||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
Maine 2 (1)
Trump has fallen back slightly since last week with little sign of the movement he needs to regain the White House in three weeks time.
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||2.8%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Safe Trump||13.3%||No new polling|
|71.2%||Biden has recovered here with four out of the last five polls showing a lead.|
|Florida||Soft Biden||70.9%||Continues to be strong for Biden, but Trump has improved his position since last week and led in one poll.|
|83.7%||Dramatic (and consistent across different firms) polling shows Biden moving strongly into favour.|
|37.4%||One of the few areas where Trump appears to be increasing support after the wobble of the last few weeks.|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||0.3%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||0.6%||No change on last week’s forecast. This is Safe Trump.|
|Maine 2||Strong Trump||21.1%||No new polling|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||99.3%||Signs of small increase in Trump support, but still not enough to challenge Biden.|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||99.9%||At the moment Biden is leading by a solid 6-7% of the vote here, with enough regular polling to remove any doubt of his victory.|
|5.4%||Right on the edge of Safe / Strong Trump.|
|92.4%||Biden continues to show strong leads and we have moved him into the safe category as his probability of victory increases.|
|North Carolina||Strong Biden||92.9%||Just the hint in recent polling that Trump might be improving here. Biden hasn’t lost a poll here since 25 September, but isn’t safe yet.|
|33.6%||Biden starting to challenge here again with the trend definitely in his direction even if he’s currently around 1.5% behind.|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||99.6%||Some signs in last few polls of improvements for Trump here, but nothing yet to worry the Democrats|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0%||Still polling consistently well for Trump.|
|Texas||Strong Trump||19.5%||Trump’s lead is down to around 2.5%, but that looks strong.|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||98.1%||No new polling|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||100%||As safe as safe can be for Biden.|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Weak?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (4.8% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.