US Election Nowcast – 24th October 2020

Current Nowcast

365 (-11)171 (+11)
Changes from last Nowcast
Probability Trump Victory0.00%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes0.11%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes0.30%
Probability Tie0.00%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes160 – 186
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)160 – 7.2% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)171 – 3.7% likely
Type of StateEC VotesStates
Safe Biden199
Safe Biden – Swing State74Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Strong Biden88Texas (38)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Nevada (6)
Soft Biden11Arizona (11)
Tie6Iowa (6)
Soft Trump
Strong Trump48Ohio (18)
Georgia (16)
Missouri (10)
Alaska (3)
Maine 2 (1)
Safe Trump – Swing State35
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Louisiana (8)
Kansas (6)
Montana (3)
Safe Trump77
Based on Criteria Below

Better results for Trump over the past two days, and we still have to see if the Debate performance also leads to a increase in his support. Expect to see some tightening of the race from now till polling day as the reality of the Election makes voters crystalise their partisanship.

Biden is still in a commanding lead – on just the safe States alone he has 273 Electoral College votes, enough for him to lose everything else and still win. With strong positions in Texas and Florida as well, the Democrats are currently set to regain the White House.

Ten days to go though…..

StateStatusProb Biden WinCommentary
AlabamaSafe Trump0%No new polling
AlaskaStrong Trump20.3%No new polling
ArizonaSoft Biden
(Strong Biden)
69.3%Trump continues to pick up support
FloridaStrong Biden
(Safe Biden)
93.9%Biden still with a good lead, but some better figures for Trump
GeorgiaStrong Trump
(Soft Trump)
8.9%Trump’s recovery here continues
(Strong Biden)
54.9%Iowa is now neck and neck
KansasSafe Trump1.3%New polling confirms Trump’s position
LouisianaSafe Trump0.6%No new polling
Maine 2Soft Trump35.1%No new polling
MichiganSafe Biden99.7%Biden back in strong control here
MinnesotaSafe Biden100%Continues to show good polling for Biden
MissouriSafe Trump0%No new polling
MontanaSafe Trump0%New polling confirms clear Trump lead
Nebraska 2Safe Biden98.9%No new polling
NevadaStrong Biden87.9%No new polling
North CarolinaStrong Biden
(Safe Biden)
71.9%One of the few States where polling indicates Trump is making some ground against Biden
OhioStrong Trump21.4%No new polling
PennsylvaniaSafe Biden100%Further polling confirms Biden’s safety here
South CarolinaSafe Trump0.5%No new polling
TexasStrong Biden79.1%No new polling in past two days
VirginiaSafe Biden100%Continued strong polling for Biden
WisconsinSafe Biden98.8%Continued clear water for Biden

Probability of Biden Winning State

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.

What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?

We allocate a State a grade on the following basis

Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation

Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning

Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning

Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate

Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (16.1% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.

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