Forecast #EP2019 – 16th May 2019

This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain.

This is a Forwardcast representing the result we expect on the 23rd of May.

The forecast below is our standard forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval (but will move to a 95% confidence interval for our final forecast). We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The Brexit Party’s lead over the other parties has fallen slightly and, without evidence to the contrary, we expect some small degree of reversion to the mean to occur next week. The very high levels of support in our recent Nowcasts would need to be continued to be evidenced in multiple polls for us to forecast over 30 seats for the Brexit Party.

There is a large degree of uncertainty in the polling as to the exact level of support for the Brexit Party (typical for a new party) and this is reflected in our wide confidence interval for their level of support.

We are beginning to see good evidence that the debate around Brexit is leaving Plaid Cymru with little media coverage. We believe there is a significant probability they will lose their current seat.

There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Seats Change on 2014
 Brexit Party 29.8% (25.9% – 33.7%) 27 +27
 Labour 23.2% (19.9% – 26.5%) 20 
Liberal Democrats 13.6% (10.8% – 16.4%) 10 +9
Conservatives 13.3% (11.6% – 14.0%) 8 -11
Green 7.8% (6.0% – 9.6%) 3 
Change UK 5.3% (4.1% – 6.5%) 0 
UKIP 3.7% (3.3% – 4.1%) 0 -24
SNP 2.8% (2.4% – 3.2%) 2 
Plaid Cymru 0.6% (0.3% – 0.9%) 0 -1

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